[5NL] AKs OOP against UTG 4bet

Originally Posted by daviddem

How is the shove profitable with the ranges OP assumed, if your 5b shove gets only called by equal or better and folds all the worse hands?

Set it up in a spreadsheet and play around with Villains 4bet range and 5bet shoving range and work out the overall EV. Only thing you need stove for is your equity in each case.

You basically want to list all the hands he 4bets with and the amount of combinations of them that he can have, how often %wise that he calls with each of these and find the number of combinations he calls with.

Then you have his calling% and folding %

Work out your equity on stove vs his calling range (using the combinations you had)

Then work out the EV of each of these and add them up
1) Folds, we win
2) Calls, we win
3) Calls, we lose

Probably best to have the fold pot and the call pot in bb's.

You can even factor in how much dead money affects the pot and also the difference made with different size raises.

edit - I think this works anyway.

I'm sure you could even make it more complicated and include how often % wise villain 4bets with each hand and try to include that to make it even better than mine.

That's probably a bit much though considering we'll have no idea for the msot part.